Reflections on the future of container ports in view of the new containerization behaviour

Almost from its inception, there has been a clear upward trend in the disruptive force of the container during its use. However, a relative decrease in container movement has been seen in recent years although the explanation of which goes beyond disturbances in the world economy. The authors notice that the inter-annual change in throughput with respect to changes in GDP is declining. To understand this phenomenon, the authors have examined variations in containerization, notably factors that cause containerization to increase and decrease.

With the intent to explain these upward and downward variations, some working hypotheses will be proposed and demonstrated, particularly the reprimarization of the economy, cargo miniaturization, possible decreases in transhipments, and the increasing use of 40-feet containers rather than 20-feet containers.

The following document outline the current status of trade and containerization, and advance hypotheses to better understand the phenomenon of containerization for the future. As happens with any innovation, containers are reaching a stage in their life cycle in which their pace of evolution might slow down in the coming years. This document considers the factors that could cause the containerization rate to increase (rise), and others that make it decrease (fall). It is not intended to close any discussion or forestall the emergence of new explanations in this regard.