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The low predictive power of simple Phillips curves in Chile

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The low predictive power of simple Phillips curves in Chile

Author: Pincheira Brown, Pablo - Rubio Hurtado, Hernán Physical Description: páginas. 171-19 Date: August 2015 ECLAC symbol: LC/G.2643-P

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Description

This study uses some backward-looking versions of Phillips curves, estimated from both revised and real-time data, to explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that a variety of activity measures may make to the task of predicting inflation in Chile. The main results confirm the findings of the recent international literature: the predictive power of the activity measures considered here is episodic, unstable and of moderate size. This weak predictive contribution is robust to the use of final and real-time data.