A Study Assesses the Impact of Climate Change in
Central America's Energy Sector

Photo: Adrián Merinero, Flickr

In spite of the fact that Central America generates minimal amounts of green-house gases (GHG) compared to other regions – both overall and per capita – it is one of the most vulnerable areas to natural disasters caused by climate disorders.

A recent study conducted by the Sub-regional Headquarters of ECLAC in Mexico states that the cost of climate change for the energy sector in Central America could amount to US$ 68 billion – or more – depending on the scenario under review.

The document Sectoral Regional Study on Energy and Climate Change in Central America (only available in Spanish) assesses the potential impacts of climate change on the energy sector in Central American countries. It also shows initial estimates of hydroelectric energy and includes GHG mitigation estimates based on energy efficiency programmes and an increasing use of renewable energy sources.

For performing their analysis, researchers built very-long-term energy development scenarios (from 2010 to 2100) for the seven countries in Central America (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama). Building on such scenarios, GHG emissions were calculated and several mitigation strategies were assessed.

They concluded that per capita energy demand and consumption would increase considerably during the above-mentioned period in each and every one of the macro-economic scenarios considered in the study (2.6%, 3.2%, 3.9%, respectively for low, middle and high scenarios).

Likewise, they warn that current energy supply is strongly dependent on externals, a situation that might worsen as local energy sources run out.

According to the study, hydraulic energy represents the most important local source of energy for generating electricity in Central America. The sub-region has a potential of 22,000 mega watts (MW), of which until now only 17% has been utilized. The report foresees that, by the half of the current century, 50% of this potential will be exploited. However, hydraulic energy availability will be severely affected by climate change due to rainfall declines and variability in precipitation patterns – especially in the five countries north of the Isthmus.

On the other hand, the sub-region has a geothermal potential estimated at 3,000 MW, of which only 15% has been utilized, whereas wind and solar energy information is generally incipient and does not allow for any estimate.

ECLAC’s study adds that renewable energy sources (RES) and energy efficiency (EE) programmes and initiatives have a high potential to mitigate GHG and reduce the use of fossil fuels, and the corresponding GHG emissions. Yet, it advises that it is necessary to conduct assessments and regular adjustments for ensuring progress and sustainability when developing RES, as well as strengthening institutions and governance within EE programmes.

Finally, it stresses the relevance of the transport sector, as it is the largest consumer of petroleum products. It recommends that the region moves forward simultaneously in several levels, such as the establishment of policies that contribute to reducing the demand for polluting transport – as it is already happening in many capitals – and encourage the use of less polluting and more energy-efficient means of transport.