The dynamics of Mexican manufacturing exports

This article evaluates several of the determinants of Mexicanmanufacturing exports, using two complementary econometric methods: astructural ARIMA model, which makes it possible to estimate elasticities; anda generalized VAR model, which provides a fully dynamic perspective byestimating impulse response functions. As some of the findings are robustto changes in the econometric methodology used, the article reaches thefollowing conclusions. First, manufacturing exports are positively relatedto labour productivity and external demand; so the adverse effects of aninternational recession on Mexican exports could, to some extent, be offsetby raising worker productivity. Second, real exchange-rate depreciationdoes not increase manufacturing exports, but actually reduces them, atleast in the short run. These findings are consistent with the idea thata real depreciation not only affects demand, but also generates strongsupply-side effects.