A slowdown in performance of container trade and port activity in Latin America, the Caribbean and the world, 2014- 2015

In 2015, global and regional container port activity experienced a slow growth worldwide. The global container throughput grew by only 1.1% in 2015, according to Alphaliner’s estimates based on a preliminary survey of over 400 ports worldwide. Last year’s global throughput growth logged the second lowest annual growth rate ever recorded for the industry, surpassed only by the record low of 2009 when it declined by -8.4% due to the global financial crisis. Although global GDP grew by 3.1% in 2015 according to the latest IMF estimates, container volume growth grew by less than half of the rate of GDP growth rate – the first time that the global TEU volume growth to GDP multiplier fell below 1X. The latter has been steadily declining over the last 30 years, dropping from an average of 3.4X in the period from 1990-1999 to 2.6X in 2000- 2008.

Although the region achieved overall better results, it can be stated that Latin America and the Caribbean’s container throughput showed a slowdown in its growth during the last year. This comparative assessment of the performance in 2015 and in 2014, is based on a survey of a representative sample of ports in the region. The results showed a decelerating growth, with a lower expansion of port throughput compared to previous years in some cases and a more dynamic growth in the others. During 2015, the port container movements in Latin America and the Caribbean included in the survey reached an increase of 3.0% more than in 2014. The region’s exports declined in value by by 11.6% and the imports by 9.3%. Over this period, the region’s economies presented a recession of Gross Domestic product (GDP), declining by 0.4%.

Comparing 2014 and 2015, port activity revealed a growth of container throughput by 3.49%, and the GDP had a lower variation by 3.1%, while the variations of import and export values were even further below in percentage change than the container trade. This reveals a sharp decrease of trade that has been observed in the region during the last five years. It is worth highlighting that in the four years prior to the global economic crisis, container ports experienced an average annual growth of 14.5%, which was almost three times the rate of average change of the economic activity of the region in the same period (5.4%). During the 2010-2014 period, this relation (GDP multiplier) has been slightly reduced - 2.5X – this, in combination with the lower GDP growth of the region (3.6%) explains the downturn in growth rates of  container throughput in Latin America and the Caribbean.