The impact of climate change on the water sector in the Caribbean

This study econometrically analyses the projected impact of climate change on the water sector of
nine Caribbean countries to 2100: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Montserrat, Jamaica,
Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago. Overall, all countries, with the exception of
Trinidad and Tobago, are expected to suffer aggregate losses as result of climate change in the early
periods ca. 2020 under one or more scenarios. Over time, some countries experience declining negative
impacts, as in the case of Guyana under the B2 scenario. Some countries, such as the Dominican
Republic, is projected to suffer increasing losses under the B2 scenario and, for others, the impacts do not
follow a defined trend. The A2 scenario offers the best outcome for all countries, except Jamaica (where
BAU is most desirable), Montserrat (which performs most poorly under the A2 scenario), and the
Netherlands Antilles, which does best under the B2 case.
Overall, relative to 2006, the total demand for water in the Caribbean is expected to fall by 2030
by 11.3% to approximately 12,967 million cubic meters. This is due to the expected fall in agricultural
water demand by approximately 36% in that period. However, by 2050, total water demand for the
Caribbean will again exceed the 2006 level by approximately 4% to 14,896.33 106 m3. By 2100, water
demand will increase almost fivefold to approximately 69,233.69 106 m3.
Climate change is expected to affect all countries in the Caribbean. In some cases, there will be
positive impacts that may continue to increase over time and, in other cases, the impact will be negative
and worsen over time. Overall, the agricultural sector is expected to suffer the worst losses over any
scenario, whilst growth in the industrial sectors is expected to be significant and contribute the most to
increasing water demand over time.