U.S. Economic Outlook – Third Quarter 2019

1. The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the third quarter of 2019. This was the slowest third-quarter growth since 2015.

2. The third quarter of 2019 was the 41st consecutive quarter of growth and November the 125th month of consecutive growth for the U.S. economy. The current expansion is the longest on record.

3. U.S. employers added 266,000 jobs in November, beating expectations and confirming the continued strength of the labor market. The unemployment rate dropped back to a historic low of 3.5%, and hourly earnings increased 3.1% over the past year, also exceeding estimates.

4. Over the last 12 months (as of end of November), the all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.1%. The core CPI was up 2.3%.

5. The nominal trade deficit narrowed by 7.6% in October to US$ 47.2 billion, the narrowest since the first half of 2018. It is expected to make a positive contribution to growth in the fourth-quarter.

6. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times this year due to slowing global growth and trade uncertainty, contributing to diminish recession fears. It kept the federal funds rate unchanged in its last meeting of the year and indicated that it had no plans to make any more changes in 2020.